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Strategy is Alive And Well ...And Living in Uncertainty

Dr Norman Chorn

A Premature Obituary?

Many pundits claim that strategy is dead and has no place in this uncertain and fast changing environment. They say it’s too slow and the outcomes are irrelevant as conditions change rapidly. Moreover, they argue, organisations should focus on being agile and concentrate on launching a series of short, sharp projects to respond to the changing environment.


My view is that this short term perspective is based on three flawed assumptions about strategy.


Why are these assumptions flawed?

1. Strategy is different to planning


Planning is a process where we set specific objectives ahead of the time, and then focus on the steps and

milestones to achieve these objectives. It is useful in a shorter timeframe where the conditions and constraints are relatively stable.


Strategy, on the other hand, is an ongoing learning process where we seek to position the organisation within its operating environment. It is fluid and is concerned with a series of aims rather than specific objectives.


It is NOT concerned with predicting or making assumptions about the future - but focuses on understanding the system within which the organisation operates, and identifying the various leverage points that might be used to advance the organisation’s position.


2. There is real payoff in developing strategy


Recent research across several industry sectors shows that organisations involved in strategic

conversations and setting (longer term) strategy consistently show superior economic and stakeholder performance.


Moreover, the research shows that the cost of short term approaches (a focus on simply being responsive and reactive to changes in the environment) is that these organisations become fragmented and slowly erode the value of their resources.


3. Agility is not a strategy


Agility is not a strategy - it is a means of developing and executing a strategy. Indeed, high levels of agility without an underpinning strategy could lead to a more rapid fragmentation and degradation of organisational capabilities.


A long-standing and robust typology of organisational styles is offered by Raymond Miles and Charles Snow in their description of organisations as:


Repeated research shows that Reactors have the poorest performance of the types - and that they experience more failure and ‘corporate rescues’.(See the longer version of this article for further detail).

Effective Strategy in Uncertainty

Three processes contribute to effective strategy in these conditions of change and uncertainty:


1. Build a rich picture


A rich picture is a systems-view of the system of which the organisation is a part. It graphically

represents the key elements in the system and their interdependencies; how and where the

organisation interacts with the system; and the potential leverage points that can be used by the

organisation to re-position itself. It is a key input into the next process - the strategic conversation.


2. Start a strategic conversation


Strategy is a conversation inside the organisation. Like most conversations, it benefits from wide

participation and a wide array of diverse perspectives.


Strategic conversations are systems with several components:

  • An overall aim articulated by leadership
  • Presentations by leadership to “frame” the conversation
  • Executive blogs and posts
  • Online discussions and forums
  • Knowledge sharing platforms
  • Workshops, meetings and discussions to explore detail


The strategic conversation provides an important input for the third process - the use of scenario thinking.


3. Use scenario thinking

Scenario thinking flips an issue that typically causes a logjam in strategy - an attempt to predict the future state of the environment. Rather than arguing about what the future holds, we focus on what the organisation will do in the event of a series of alternative futures.


Scenario thinking makes two important distinctions:


  • We no longer focus on only one future - organisations face multiple futures in an uncertain environment
  • We are no longer concerned with predicting the future. We focus instead on understanding the capabilities required by the organisation to thrive in the range of alternative futures. Even if the range of alternative futures is wide, there will usually be a set of common capabilities required across them all. These then become the subject of capability development.


By using the insights gathered through the strategic conversation, we generate a set of alternative futures faced by the organisation. The current business idea (value proposition, business model) is then wind-tunnelled in these different scenarios of the future.


By embracing the uncertainty in the environment (instead of simply predicting a single set of operating conditions), we are able to create a more resilient organisation for the future. In addition, we are able to generate a series of innovative ideas that can enhance the strategy and capability of the organisation. 

Strategy is Alive and Well

Rather than being irrelevant in this fast changing environment - change and uncertainty are the very proving grounds for the real value of strategy. Rich pictures, strategic conversations and scenario thinking are three processes that can contribute to effective strategy for navigating through these times of uncertainty and change.


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About Dr Norman Chorn


Dr Norman Chorn is a highly experienced business strategist helping organisations and individuals be resilient and adaptive for an uncertain future. Well known to many as the ‘business doctor’!


By integrating the principles of neuroscience with strategy and economics Norman achieves innovative approaches to achieve peak performance within organisations. He specialises in creating strategy for the rapidly changing and uncertain future and can help you and your organisation.

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Part 3: Accelerate Performance With Strategic Alignment - Develop The Appropriate Culture

By Norman Chorn • 27 Mar, 2023
In my previous article "Accelerate Performance with Strategic Alignment - Define the logic of your strategy", we demonstrated the alignment between the market and business strategy by matching the logic of the market with the logic of the strategy. The Explore logic emphasises a market where customers seek new solutions for emerging requirements. The strategy responds by exploring new opportunities and driving for growth. The Exploit logic occurs in a more stable market where customers seek lower costs and reliability of supply. The appropriate strategy focuses on operational efficiency and building close customer relationships. Culture is key to shaping the capabilities of the business to successfully implement strategy . It drives the way that people behave, decisions are made and actions are taken. It determines, therefore, the strategy that is actually realised in the market, as opposed to that which is merely intended. We make a key distinction between the desired culture and the appropriate culture. The desired culture is what people may choose because it sounds attractive and in vogue. However, the appropriate culture is the culture that is required to successfully implement the chosen strategy. Often, these can be different. For example, people might seek to develop a culture that is ‘innovative’, ‘flexible’ and ‘empowering’, but this may not be the appropriate culture needed to successfully implement the business strategy. DEVELOP THE APPROPRIATE CULTURE FOR YOUR STRATEGY Developing the appropriate culture requires a deliberate emphasis on certain cultural attributes and making trade-offs on others. As we will see, the attributes that are traded off are usually the opposites of those that are emphasised.
2 puzzle pieces

Part 2: Accelerate Performance with Strategic Alignment - Define the Logic of your Strategy

By Norman Chorn • 27 Mar, 2023
In Part 1 "How to Accelerate Performance with Strategic Alignment - Understand the Logic of the Market" we outlined different market conditions and defined them in terms of two overarching logics — Exploring and Exploiting . To briefly recap, an Exploring logic is one where customers are seeking new solutions for emerging needs. It’s all about change and action. An Exploiting logic occurs in a more stable market in which the issues are about lowering costs and working collaboratively with customers. It’s a market that focuses on stability and cohesion. FORCES THAT SHAPE YOUR STRATEGY Clearly, it is one of these two logics — or a combination of both — that will shape your strategy as you operate in these markets. See figure 1 below that describes how these logics will form your business strategy:
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